300 Measles Cases Forecasted in 2024

Over the past two decades, most measles cases have been related to infected, unvaccinated international travelers bringing the highly transmissible virus with them to the United States.

This year, the U.S. is at greater risk for measles outbreaks because 49 countries are reporting cases, and international travel has resumed full throttle.

For example, a significant international measles outbreak continues in India. 

To better understand health risks in 2024, the U.S. CDC's Center for Forecasting and Analytics and the Division of Viral Diseases in the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases have analyzed measles data and created models to explore potential outbreak scenarios.

Looking at historical data on measles outbreaks, size, and distribution since 2001, the CDC anticipates the most likely number of cases this year is around 300.

Furthermore, the CDC estimates a 4% chance of more than 1,000 measles cases being reported in 2024.

As of April 19, 2024, 125 measles cases had been reported this year. About 69% of these cases (86 of 125) are outbreak-associated. 

This analysis indicates that the number of outbreaks in 2024 is unlikely to be substantially more significant than those in prior years, such as 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2019.

So far, in 2024, there have been seven outbreaks (defined as three or more related cases). For comparison, the CDC reported four outbreaks during 2023.

The unfortunate outbreak leader is the city of Chicago, which has reported 63 measles cases in 2024.

The City of Chicago has one of the highest measles vaccination rates in the U.S., indicating most of these measles cases are travel-related.

Jeri Beales, RN MSN, informed Precision Vaccination News, "Because measles is one of the most contagious diseases known, outbreaks pop up in low, medium, and high-income countries, so even travelers on holiday to Europe should check vaccine records before going."

"If you lost your vaccine card from childhood, a simple blood test can check your immune status against measles," added Beales, with Destination Health Clinic near Boston, MA.

Since measles is a vaccine-preventable disease, the CDC recommends that most people protect themselves with an MMR vaccination, which is generally available at travel clinics and pharmacies in the U.S.